National Populism: the risks for the Isle of Man

If you haven't come across the term 'National Populism' in recent years you will have certainly seen it playing out in the news, on social media and, unfortunately, very likely in daily conversations in the Isle of Man.

National Populism is defined as "a nationalist political ideology that aims to mobilize popular support by emphasizing … national identity and the promotion of national interests, often highlighting sovereignty, culture and traditions." Sound familiar?

Its rise over the past decade has gone hand-in-hand with three driving forces created by globalisation and identified by the political analyst John Denham:

1. Distinct economic winners and losers

2. Sense of the ‘traditional’ nation being challenged (through migration)

3. Inability for incumbent Governments to respond adequately

Like other Western liberal democracies the Isle of Man has also seen itself increasingly subsumed by the same traits.

These translate in practical terms into a growing discourse in Manx online forums and social media pages, but also increasingly in news stories, where highly emotive, if not always fully or accurately represented, topics are visible.

These conversations tend to focus on immigration, the presence of "foreign" people in the island and criticism of government spending on public services.

We could speculate whether the rise in this discourse is 'supply-side' (i.e. the Manx government's adherence to ‘UK lite’ economic and social policies). Or if it's a 'demand-side' issue (i.e. generated by a dominance of UK right-wing news and social media content circulating online in the Isle of Man).

But that's a topic for another post on another day.

Right now, all that matters is that the Isle of Man is not immune from the rise of national populism - and it's a very real problem for the current Manx Government, its civil service and incoming cohort of MHKs at the next election.

In general terms national populism creates a social environment that's divisive and toxic - all government policy is seen as a zero-sum game with winners and losers.

Moreover, despite the 'popular' and seemingly common-sense rationale for many of its arguments, national populism is usually considered bad for the economy. This all raises several significant risks for the Isle of Man, including:

• It undermines Manx identity and sovereignty - if you hadn't guessed it already, much of the national populist discourse is is framed from a distinctly ‘traditional British/UK’ (but really, English) perspective. It aligns with the narrative being pushed by far-right populists in the UK. Crucially, this undermines the Isle of Man and Manx identity as distinct from the UKs. As we have argued before, having a distinct national identity underpinned by distinct national values is crucial for our reputation in the world, while our 'nation brand' is central to our marketing efforts. Moreover, it also risks damaging the continued evolution of our greater autonomy, a political direction set out by the UK government.

  
  

• It undermines Manx political authority - a related, and equally important, aspect is the effect (English) national populist discourse has on Manx political authority. Expanding the sphere of influence or cause of Manx 'problems' to those primarily facing the UK, creates the belief that the UK government's decisions are the defining political authority for the Isle of Man. This erodes the island's status as a quasi-autonomous state in the eyes of the public and further reduces the significance of our democratic accountability at a national, Manx level. It blurs the political and constitutional boundaries between the Isle of Man and the UK - not a good thing.

  
  

• It risks subsuming and framing everything the government does - as the national populist discourse grows and sways more and more members of the public, a generalised risk arises whereby all policy outcomes or government actions are seen through a national populist prism. As an example, recent news reports have highlighted a world-leading blue carbon project delivered on the Isle of Man. A great piece of news with important natural and economic potential. However, turn to social media and this news is seen not as a great success, but as a waste of taxpayers money which could be spent on more important things.

At this point, let's pause and take stock of how Government can respond. National populism will absolutely set the tone and the agenda for the next general election (along with generative AI).

In this sense, Stu Peters' election last time around was the 'canary in the coal mine', rather than an odd outlier unlikely to be repeated.

National populism will be a strategic challenge for the new Government and civil service. How do you plan and design policy, deliver public services and engender public trust in such a toxic environment?

Here are some things the Manx Government can start doing now to get ahead of the problems coming down the line:

1) Data

• Better data - data alone isn't a magic bullet, but it provides a vital foundation for all policy-making and service delivery and gives Government clarity and accuracy on why decisions need to be taken. There seems to be a general paucity of data across public bodies and civil society which is a real limitation in making solid, evidence-based policy. More importantly, it leaves space for wild, and often inaccurate, public commentary

  
  

• Data-led strategic communications - as well as ensuring accurate decisions, having robust data providing clear rationales for specific policies and actions being taken will help tackle any misinformation circulating online. Although we mustn't forget data itself won't be sufficient as many national populist themes are rooted in emotion. Blending data with a compelling narrative will be essential.

2) Policy-making

• More transparency on decisions and data - in the shorter term, showing people the scale of the issues they perceive as being more (or less) important; what is being done by Government and why (using data as per above) will help foster deeper trust. Or at least it will suggest that Government isn't hiding anything, helping to challenge the popular notion that 'elites' within the civil service or Government are running things according to personal agendas.

  
  

• More and better 'agenda-setting' policy communications - in the longer-term strategic communications should play a much stronger part in shaping the policy agenda by, ultimately, setting the news agenda. This means identifying the key issues affecting the Isle of Man (Missions, anyone?), framing key policy goals in the right way and creating a clear narrative which is brought to life across multiple channels. And, while it's true that 'policy comms' has changed in recent years, simply following 'the grid' is no longer enough in a multi-channel era. Nor is it sufficient to simply import UK thinking or approaches to the Isle of Man, given our different scale and cultural and historical differences.

3) National identity positioning

• Ensure clear, consistent position on Manx identity is communicated widely - While this is technically part of the above point on better policy comms, it's vital for the Manx Government to have a consistent position on what the Isle of Man stands for; what it mean to be Manx and how these qualities influence everything the Manx Government does. It's also worth calling out this issue separately, as in the current Manx public sphere there are plenty of racist and toxic points of view all claiming to be central to the 'Manx experience' (and mostly from a British POV). With a clear position on what qualities and values the Manx identity is - or ought to be - the Government (and others in civil society) can use it to (re)assert the importance of tolerance and openness; qualities central to the Isle of Man's history over centuries. This should be an immediate priority for the Government.

While we believe there is a real threat to the Island from the rise in a UK-dominated national populism, there is some good news: the Manx government doesn't need to wait until the general election to start addressing these issues.